Challenge: The client, a European pharmaceutical company specializing in supportive cancer therapies, has a product (Product X) that may be approved for anti-emetic use in China in 2-3 years. They need to understand the current landscape of the anti-emetic drug market in China, how it may evolve, and assess the commercial opportunities for Product X. The objectives are to: 1) Explore the current and future anti-emetic drug market in China; 2) Evaluate the commercial opportunities for Product X and define the optimal pricing strategy; 3) Forecast Product X’s sales revenue over a 10-year period under three scenarios (worst, base, and best case).
Solution: We conducted desktop research and IMS data analysis to provide a preliminary market outlook and establish key hypotheses, as well as created a discussion guide. We calculated patient flow and conducted comparative studies to analyze sales and price trends, laying the groundwork for a sales forecasting model. We interviewed key opinion leaders (KOLs) and conducted competitive intelligence (CI) interviews to understand pricing, entry barriers, and product positioning in the treatment landscape. Finally, we summarized key insights to deliver a high-level market strategy and designed a net present value (NPV) model for potential collaboration.
Outcome: Our model estimated the commercial value of Product X to be 200% higher than the client’s original assumption. This allowed the client to segment the market by different metrics (postoperative nausea and vomiting, and chemotherapy-induced nausea and vomiting), identify key factors for hospital listing, and compile a list of potential Chinese partners for collaboration.